Considering Potential

Assessing the potential of the project.

What kind of potential?

What kind of potential are we talking here? The potential energy so to speak, energy here meaning the power to change or realign structures in the systems it’s presented in. Here this means above all else — power to change or realign views and convictions of people who are interacting with the game/simulation in some way or another.

Direction

In line with the motivations, the potential (energy) is meant to be aimed and eventually unleashed towards the reaching the set goals, which, other than fun, are linked mainly to the process of learning.

Measuring potential

Measuring potential can be a hard task, prone to errors of all kinds. Both being blinded by one’s aspirations as well as failing to assess the reachability of one’s goals are large part of that task. The potential described on this page is still open to question, mainly due to lack of proper data and expertise. If you have useful data on the subject and would like to contribute that please do so.

Analyzing the historical occurrences

Analysis of some similar simulation models could help us decide if what we want to do could have an impact on the the world.

  • World3 — One of the notable simulation models was the World3 model, along with the “Limits to growth” book. While it had it’s problems, it was still considered a success — not only some of it’s predictions were actually somewhat accurate (or: not completely inaccurate), but also, and maybe even more importantly, it served as an important tool for igniting discussion about important things (like population change and resource depletion). While the model was quite complex, it wasn’t complex by today’s standards — it was still created almost half a decade ago, on 1970’s hardware, with 1970 computing possibilities.

Lack of similar solutions

Global in scope simulations of real-life systems which try to combine as many different types of subsystems as possible are rather scarce. Gamified versions of such simulations are very-scarce to non-existent. This observation alone let’s us conclude that there is large potential gain to be had in creating them (assuming we consider such simulations valuable, of course) — gain being measured by the accomplishment of goals specific to the project.

The current situation

World as it is today, and our place in it, is not in a steady nor in a safe state. There are a lot of existential risks out there, most of them, looking at the near future of the next 100 years, introduced directly by ourselves rather than by the nature itself. As more work is being done in the field of researching these and other threats we as a civilization face, we can think about and indeed try out more ways of reducing the risks of some of these threats.

Due to the inefficiencies regarding the current decisioning structures for our organizations, and other things impeding rational discourse on these topics, there are still many people that aren’t aware of the issues at hand. Giving appropriate priority to spreading the knowledge is a very important thing here, as it has huge implications for all areas related to dealing with these issues.

Given the above, and using the bias described as a sort of multiplier for the potential value, we can say there is large potential gain to be had for initiatives dealing with spreading knowledge and/or inspiring thoughts on the important subjects related to issues like existential threats, and other similar issues.